Post by account_disabled on Feb 27, 2024 3:14:12 GMT -6
The reader will surely be tired of reading, listening and talking about the elections in the United States. For those of us who live in the country, the last few months have been true torture and most of us wanted it all to end so we could return to normal. But the process held a great surprise for us, normality would not return for a long time. For more than half of the voters in the United States and a large part of the opinion of the rest of the world, the result was not what was desired, for multiple reasons, which it is not necessary to analyze, countless media outlets have already done so. What we want to comment on is the possible impact of the result on the harmonious development of the planet and many of its inhabitants. The president-elect's opinion on climate change is well known: it is an invention of China to conspire against the competitiveness of the United States in international trade . His electoral platform included repudiation of the Paris Agreement to control emissions that recently came into effect, with the support of the main emitters, the US, China, India and the European Union. Can the US withdraw from the agreement? Yes , but the effectiveness of your departure must wait four years, a period in which you should still comply with the obligations acquired. They may also leave by denouncing the agreement in the Convention of the Parties. But we must remember that these “obligations” are based on voluntary emissions reduction plans. Although the Agreement is binding, most of its provisions are voluntary compliance since the “obligations” are preceded by qualifiers such as “should”, “do the best they can”, “are encouraged”, etc. So the reductions suggested by each country are not binding and there is no way to penalize those who do not present national plans or who do not comply with them. Although in theory the US would continue within the Agreement for the minimum of four years, in practice it can behave as if it were not, not participating in the meetings, not sending the information, not complying with the original plan, etc. and there are no penalties beyond social rejection (For more details about the Agreement, see my article Paris Agreement: simply analyzed and explained ).
The impact of the eventual rejection New Zealand WhatsApp Number will depend on the reaction of the other member governments of the Agreement and of the companies and people. If with the participation of everyone the achievement of the goals is already very difficult, it will be even more so without the participation of one of the largest emitters. It is very possible that other countries will pressure the US to do its part, that they continue with theirs and achieve what can be achieved. Of course, this would be a great temptation for some countries, already recalcitrant, to either fail to comply with their commitments or not take them seriously. Fortunately, the entry into force of the Agreement came at a good time and despite some doubts there are many countries, companies, organizations and society in general that have perceived that the problem is serious and that the time has come to act. About 5 years ago, this situation could have been fatal for progress, but now there is a much greater consensus. The same companies with the greatest contribution to emissions (energy, transportation, etc.) have made large investments, whether financial and physical, or intellectual and social capital that they will want to make profitable . Many have already capitalized on the change in the energy model and will constitute sources of pressure on the US government. Additionally, the costs of renewable energy, for example, are becoming competitive with those of fossil fuels and there are many advances in transportation and in alternative energy sources. Technologies and markets have been developed to facilitate processes. These technologies and markets are powerful drivers of the trend towards emissions reductions. Awareness of the need to act is widespread among society, mainly in developed countries, which is where most emissions are generated. It is not that this progress is irreversible, but there are costs of going back . It is not ruled out that there will be a reaction from governments and society and its institutions against the US position and want to isolate it as a pariah on these issues, which could generate a strong internal reaction in the country .
Although the electoral process led to the discovery of a large part of the population that is ignorant and indifferent to collective problems, the country, in general, is very proud of its perceived world leadership. donald-trump-rse It is also not ruled out that we see shades of a “third Trump . ” There was a first, the insulter, who needed to win the primary elections by humiliating his opponents, the second, the liar and slanderer, who needed to win the general election and, possibly a third, the moderate (big unknown!) who must govern a country, powerful and of great diversity, with great institutional and legal development. It is not expected that he will be a consensus seeker, on the contrary, he is expected to be a “bull in a china shop” (“like an elephant in a glass shop”). But it is to be expected that moderating forces will form around him , starting with the vice president, some powerful members of his party, business leaders and public opinion itself, especially the news media. Immediately after the election, there have been public protests in large cities, against it, in a generic way, something unprecedented in the history of the country. It is expected that these protests will intensify as soon as the time comes to discuss specific issues such as the environment and the forced expulsion of illegal immigrants . It does not seem feasible that the announced deportation of more than three million people will be carried out in the face of the indifference of the population. Many will see analogies with the mass trains in the late 1930s and early 1940s in Central Europe and the forced registration of Japanese Americans during the Second World War. Against this moderation plays the fact that the president-elect believes that he has a firm and broad mandate from the people (without remembering that more than half did not vote for him and that a large number of those who voted for him do not understand the implications of the electoral proposals, which were not and are not defined).
The impact of the eventual rejection New Zealand WhatsApp Number will depend on the reaction of the other member governments of the Agreement and of the companies and people. If with the participation of everyone the achievement of the goals is already very difficult, it will be even more so without the participation of one of the largest emitters. It is very possible that other countries will pressure the US to do its part, that they continue with theirs and achieve what can be achieved. Of course, this would be a great temptation for some countries, already recalcitrant, to either fail to comply with their commitments or not take them seriously. Fortunately, the entry into force of the Agreement came at a good time and despite some doubts there are many countries, companies, organizations and society in general that have perceived that the problem is serious and that the time has come to act. About 5 years ago, this situation could have been fatal for progress, but now there is a much greater consensus. The same companies with the greatest contribution to emissions (energy, transportation, etc.) have made large investments, whether financial and physical, or intellectual and social capital that they will want to make profitable . Many have already capitalized on the change in the energy model and will constitute sources of pressure on the US government. Additionally, the costs of renewable energy, for example, are becoming competitive with those of fossil fuels and there are many advances in transportation and in alternative energy sources. Technologies and markets have been developed to facilitate processes. These technologies and markets are powerful drivers of the trend towards emissions reductions. Awareness of the need to act is widespread among society, mainly in developed countries, which is where most emissions are generated. It is not that this progress is irreversible, but there are costs of going back . It is not ruled out that there will be a reaction from governments and society and its institutions against the US position and want to isolate it as a pariah on these issues, which could generate a strong internal reaction in the country .
Although the electoral process led to the discovery of a large part of the population that is ignorant and indifferent to collective problems, the country, in general, is very proud of its perceived world leadership. donald-trump-rse It is also not ruled out that we see shades of a “third Trump . ” There was a first, the insulter, who needed to win the primary elections by humiliating his opponents, the second, the liar and slanderer, who needed to win the general election and, possibly a third, the moderate (big unknown!) who must govern a country, powerful and of great diversity, with great institutional and legal development. It is not expected that he will be a consensus seeker, on the contrary, he is expected to be a “bull in a china shop” (“like an elephant in a glass shop”). But it is to be expected that moderating forces will form around him , starting with the vice president, some powerful members of his party, business leaders and public opinion itself, especially the news media. Immediately after the election, there have been public protests in large cities, against it, in a generic way, something unprecedented in the history of the country. It is expected that these protests will intensify as soon as the time comes to discuss specific issues such as the environment and the forced expulsion of illegal immigrants . It does not seem feasible that the announced deportation of more than three million people will be carried out in the face of the indifference of the population. Many will see analogies with the mass trains in the late 1930s and early 1940s in Central Europe and the forced registration of Japanese Americans during the Second World War. Against this moderation plays the fact that the president-elect believes that he has a firm and broad mandate from the people (without remembering that more than half did not vote for him and that a large number of those who voted for him do not understand the implications of the electoral proposals, which were not and are not defined).